By Ujjwal Singh
Boltahaibihar: Corona has caused uproar in the whole world. Along with health, the whole world is also moving towards a major economic crisis due to which the global recession is clearly visible. Stock markets around the world have collapsed in the last one month.
The United Nations has warned that the worldwide corona epidemic will snatch the jobs of 25 million people. It will prove to be a scourge in the already ongoing global economic crisis. This will shock the global economy by $ 3.6 trillion. The United Nations said that this would deepen the economic and labor crisis.
The International Labor Organization has also said in a study that if a co-ordinated policy is made at the global level, the losses can be reduced to a great extent. In China, 5 million people lost jobs in January-February due to the economic side effects of Corona. This damage occurred due to the shutdown of work and business activities in all cities including Wuhan, Shanghai. The unemployment rate in China also increased to 6.2 percent in February from 5.3 percent in January. This can also have an impact on China's growth rate.
The deadly corona virus, which is spreading rapidly around the world, has severely affected the global economy. This has affected both demand and supply of goods and services. International crude oil prices have fallen by more than 50 per cent since the first meeting of the World Health Organization (WHO) on Corona on 24 January, amid increased supply of oil and decreased demand.
Impact on Asia's economy
The Asian Development Bank said in a press release issued in the first week of March that Corona would have a major impact on the developing Asian economy. It estimated that Corona could cause a loss of $ 77 billion to $ 347 billion to the world's economy, from 0.1 percent to 0.5 percent of global GDP.
According to a Goldman Sachs report (released in the last week of February), this is a setback for the demand for large commodities since the 2008 economic downturn after the Chinese economy was hit by the Corona virus. Corona has caused a historic decline in production and non-production activities in China in February 2020.
Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JP Morgan, said that the impact of being socially distant will be seen in the second quarter of 2020. The report here said - "After social distancing, there will be maritime tourism, air lines, hotels, casinos, sports programs, movies, theaters, restaurants and other industries."
He expressed the fear that this will have a direct impact on the world economy including America and in the coming months, crores of people will have to lose their jobs. Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Istlitz claims that the corona virus will affect the global economy badly and that the situation may be worse than the 2008 economic downturn.
In fact, the current situation is very difficult. Due to the terror of Corona virus, production work in the whole world is closed. Due to which exports have been badly affected. It is not just an economic crisis but a real crisis, which has severely affected supply and demand. Monetary policy will not be enough because the interest rates are already very low in Europe, the same is the case with the US.
The impact of the economic crisis on India:
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, India is also one of the 15 largest economies in the world affected by the Corona virus. The decrease in production in China has also impacted trade with India and due to this, India's economy may have to suffer losses of up to $ 348 million.
Europe's Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has also reduced the forecast of India's economy growth by 1.1 percent in 2020-21. The OECD had earlier estimated that India's economy would grow at 6.2 percent, but now it has reduced it to 5.1 percent.
According to other economic experts, due to Corona, India's GDP may fall by 3 percent. Recently, Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the country said, "Corona virus is also affecting our economy, so the government has decided to constitute the Kovid-19 Economic Response Force headed by the Finance Minister.
"The economic workforce will listen to all stakeholders and will work to reduce the impact of the corona virus on the economy," he said. Modi said, the task force will also ensure that the decisions taken on the economic crisis are implemented effectively. Due to Corona, industries have gone into emergency lockdown, due to which the condition of tourism to aviation sector in the country has deteriorated. .
In China, raw material supplies have been affected due to a halt due to Carona virus infection, which has affected the electronics industry along with pharmaceuticals. This is causing temporary layoffs in some areas. To stop that, Prime Minister Modi has also appealed to the private sector.
China's economy:
Actually, China has got its iron out of the world in terms of industries. It is dominated by businesses in electronics, household goods, clothing, a variety of tools, toys, medicine and to a lesser extent, vehicles. It also has a strong presence in areas like mobile, LED, fridge, TV. He is the head of the PCB (printed circuit board). In such a situation, Corona broke China so that the whole world is bound to fall into disarray.
Sooner or later the corona virus will eventually die out like other epidemics, but it will also leave some lessons for a country like India. In the last few years, our commercial and industrial dependence on China has increased greatly in the greed of foreign capital. So far India is importing those items from China on a large scale. In such a situation, India will now have to become self-sufficient in production matters.
India is a major player in the world in terms of drugs and pharmaceutical industry. By 2021, it will be in a position to export drugs worth about $ 1200 billion, a growth rate of 5.8 percent. About 24 thousand units of pharmaceuticals in India produce pharmaceuticals. About 20 percent of the world production of generic medicines is in India. But we are not able to give cheap and effective medicines to our own people because the focus of our pharmaceutical industry is more on research and less on business.
There are two big lessons for India from this corona epidemic, the first is that our commercial dependence on any country of the world is reduced and in all cases we should be self-reliant and secondly focus more on research and development of life saving medicines. The entire humanity is currently facing a global crisis. Perhaps this is the biggest crisis of our generation.
The kind of decision that the common people and governments will take in the next few weeks will probably decide what the fate of the world will be in the coming years. This decision will not only give a new shape to our health system but will also re-shape our economy, politics and culture in a new way.
Disclaimer: This is the author's personal views. Boltahaibihar is not responsible for the accuracy and completeness of the information and facts included in the article. Send us your thoughts on this Platform. Attach a short introduction and photo to the article as well.
0 Comments